#2253977
Torthaí LOLE le haghaidh na Beilge sa staidéar Leordhóthanachta agus Solúbthachta
LOLE results for Belgium in the Adequacy and Flexibility study
Scag na torthaí
Bailiúcháin
20 toradh in 2 dhoiciméad
#2253979
LOLE atá fágtha ar an margadh (uaireanta an chloig)
Remaining market LOLE (hours)
#2253985
Leibhéil LOLE le haghaidh na Beilge in MAF 2019
LOLE levels for Belgium in MAF 2019
#2253988
LOLE meánach
Average LOLE
#2253996
Leibhéil LOLE le haghaidh na Beilge i Measúnú Leordhóthanachta Ginearálta PLEF 2020
LOLE levels for Belgium in PLEF General Adequacy Assessment 2020
#2254202
Cinntear an spriocthoirt ar bhonn an chaighdeáin iontaofachta dhlíthiúil, rud a chomhfhreagraíonn do luach LOLE áirithe.
The target volume is determined on the basis of the legal reliability standard, which corresponds to a certain LOLE value.
#2254225
Comhfhreagraíonn LOLEA don chaighdeán iontaofachta (i.e. LOLE tagartha) iolraithe faoin bhfachtóir ceartúcháin X (féach aithris (94)).
LOLEA corresponds to the reliability standard (i.e. reference LOLE) multiplied by the correction factor X (see recital (94)).
#2564788
LOLE (Ionchas maidir le cailliúint lóid)
LOLE (Loss of load expectation)
#2254721
Léirigh an Bheilg gur taispeánadh ní hamháin leis an gcás HiLo ach le bonnchás AE freisin go raibh saincheist shuntasach ag baint le slándáil an tsoláthair, i.e. LOLE níos mó ná trí oiread níos airde ná a critéar LOLE dlíthiúil, agus go bhfuil údar le hidirghabháil riachtanach trí bhíthin sásra acmhainneachta.
Belgium indicated that not only the HiLo scenario, but also the EU base case showed a significant issue with security of supply, i.e. a LOLE more than three times higher than its legal LOLE criterion, and warrants the need for an intervention by means of a CRM.
#2255312
Le haghaidh bhonnchás 2025, léiríonn torthaí MAF 2020 LOLE meánach 0.4 uair an chloig, rud a chomhlíonann dá bhrí sin na critéir leordhóthanacha dlíthiúla le haghaidh na Beilge, is é sin LOLE 3 uair an chloig.
For the base case 2025 scenario, the MAF 2020 results show an average LOLE of 0,4 hours which therefore meets the legal adequacy criterion for Belgium of LOLE 3 hours.
#2253949
Mar an dara critéar, fanfaidh LOLE faoi bhun 20 uair an chloig le haghaidh bliain neamhghnách de réir staidrimh (‘LOLE95’).
As a second criterion, the LOLE shall remain below 20 hours for a statistically abnormal year (‘LOLE95’).
#2253975
Leis an tábla seo a leanas léirítear torthaí LOLE, mar atá i gceist sa staidéar leordhóthanachta náisiúnta le haghaidh EU-HiLo agus bonnchásanna an Aontais:
The following table shows the LOLE results, as entailed in the national adequacy study for the EU-HiLo and the EU base case scenarios:
#2254224
In aibsíosa, comhfhreagraíonn pointe A do thoirt shonrach a ríomhtar amhail toirt phointe B (féach aithris (95)(a)), ach agus LOLE éagsúil (LOLEA) á úsáid.
In abscissa, point A corresponds to a specific volume calculated like the point B volume (see recital (95)(a)), but using a different LOLE (LOLEA).
#2255022
Mar a shonraítear in aithris (22), tá caighdeán iontaofachta i bhfeidhm ag an mBeilg a shocraítear ag 3 uair an chloig LOLE.
As stated in recital (22), Belgium has a reliability standard in place which is set at 3 hours LOLE.
#2255313
De réir údaráis na Beilge, is é is dóichí nach dtarlóidh aon LOLE roimh 2025, dá bhrí sin ní dhéantar aon mhéadú uasphraghais imréitigh a shamhaltú roimh 2025.
According to the Belgian authorities, it is most probable that no LOLE will occur before 2025, therefore no maximum clearing price increase is modelled before 2025.
#2253948
Mar a fógraíodh in 2019, sainíodh na critéir iontaofachta sa Bheilg le critéar dhá chuid Ionchais maidir le Cailliúint Lóid (‘LOLE’): maidir leis an líon réamh-mheasta uaireanta an chloig ar lena linn nach mbeidh sé indéanta an lód ná an riachtanas le haghaidh cúlchistí oibriúcháin a chumhdach leis na hacmhainní giniúna uile atá ar fáil d’eangach leictreachais na Beilge, agus freagairt don éileamh, stóráil agus idirnascairí á gcur san áireamh freisin, ní sháróidh sé 3 uair an chloig le haghaidh gnáthbhliain de réir staidrimh.
As notified in 2019, the reliability criteria in Belgium was defined by a two-part Loss of Load Expectation (‘LOLE’) criterion: the anticipated number of hours during which it will not be possible for all the generation resources available to the Belgian electricity grid to cover the load and need for operating reserves, taking into account also demand response, storage and interconnectors, shall not exceed 3 hours for a statistically normal year.
#2253973
Le torthaí an staidéir Leordhóthanachta agus Solúbthachta 2019 léirítear, le haghaidh an cháis EU-HiLo, gan idirghabháil, go mbeadh LOLE chomh hard le 10.5 uair an chloig in 2025, rud a sháraíonn an caighdeán iontaofachta náisiúnta go suntasach ó thaobh shlándáil an tsoláthair.
The results of the 2019 Adequacy and Flexibility study show, for the EU-HiLo scenario that, without intervention, the LOLE would be as high as 10,5 hours in 2025, thereby significantly exceeding the national reliability standard in terms of security of supply.
#2253993
Mar sin féin, de réir na Beilge, le MAF ENTSO-E 2019 ní chuirtear i láthair torthaí LOLE le haghaidh na Beilge ar bhealach sách cruinn ós rud é go dtoimhdítear leis sin infhaighteacht bhreise 2.5 GW, agus is amhlaidh nach ráthaítear an méid sin.
However, according to Belgium, the ENTSO-E’s MAF 2019 does not present the LOLE results for Belgium, accurately enough as it assumes the availability of additional 2,5 GW, which in fact is not guaranteed.
#2255065
Mar a mhínítear in aithris (454), d’ainneoin na n-athchóirithe sin, leis an staidéar Leordhóthanachta agus Solúbthachta 2021 sainaithnítear rioscaí le haghaidh leordhóthanacht acmhainní na Beilge i gcomparáid leis an méid ba ghá chun sprioc LOLE 3 uair an chloig a bhaint amach.
As explained in recital (454), despite these reforms, the 2021 Adequacy and Flexibility study identifies risks for the Belgian resource adequacy as compared to what would be needed to achieve the 3-hour LOLE target.
#2255223
Le LOLE95 tagraítear don 95ú caighdeán peircintíle ar dá réir le linn diandálaí a bhfuil seans 5 % ann go dtarlóidís (i.e. geimhreadh an-fhuar a tharlaíonn uair i gcaitheamh 20 bliain) nach mór do LOLE a bheith níos lú ná an caighdeán lena mbaineann, rud atá cothrom le 20 uair an chloig, i gcás na Beilge.
LOLE95 refers to a 95th percentile standard according to which during severe conditions with a chance of 5 % of occurring (i.e. a very cold winter that occurs once in 20 years), the LOLE must be inferior to the given standard, which is, in the case of Belgium, 20 hours.